Slow Down

Slow Down

A potentially disturbing Internet trend is popping up on the radar screen. New research by Cyber Dialogue suggests the U.S. Internet audience is growing at a slower pace. A slowdown was bound to happen eventually, of course. Even so, many people will be caught off-guard. Just when you thought it was safe to go onto the Web -- the rules are about to change again as we move into Phase 2.

Heres where we stand:

· 101 million adults in the U.S. -- roughly one-half of the U.S. adult population -- had used the Net by mid-99, up from 65 million in mid-98 and 84 million at the end of 98 (The Strategist Group)
· The U.S. will have more than 110 million users by the end of 99 (Computer Industry Almanac)
· Daily use has risen to 60% for home users and 69% for work users (Strategist Group)
· 32.2 billion Internet pages were viewed in the U.S. in October, an average of over 1 billion-a-day. Thats a 49% increase from October of 98 (Media Metrix)

It will be much harder to convert the second half of the U.S. population than it was to bring the first half onto the Internet. Indeed, a new Cyber Dialogue report describes a decline in Net audience growth, due to:

· The belief by a third of the adult population that they have no need for the Internet; the U.S. is quickly becoming a country of digital haves and have-nots.
· The growing number of adults (27.7 million) who have tried the Net and quit.

These numbers point to a transition over the next 18 months as we work our way into Phase 2 of the Internet--where the rules and tricks that worked so well in Phase 1 ... will no longer guarantee success. The Internets low-hanging fruit has been plucked. To win in the future, e-commerce sites will have to adopt new strategies. Prepare yourself now! Develop a plan, stick to it, but be flexible enough to go after opportunities, because we are beginning Phase 2 of the Internet experience.

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